CRANFORD, NJ — Former Cranford Mayor Dan Aschenbach, coordinator of the Mayors Council Rahway River Watershed Flood Control, is urging the US Army Corps of Engineers to reconsider the use of AI in a forecast informed water releases from the Orange Reservoir. The original proposal that was the favored Rahway River flood control alternative, given the amount of flood reduction downstream, was set aside in 2019 by the US chief engineer, due to concerns about the use of forecasts. But since the rejection, there has been considerable advancements in using AI to better forecast major storm conditions, which argues for a reconsideration.
The original plan concept supported by the Mayors Council Rahway River Watershed Flood Control would have released stormwater from the Orange Reservoir three days prior to the peak of a major storm. The increased river flow would be out of the Rahway River system in less than a day. Prior to the peak of the storm, the new added capacity at the Orange Reservoir, along with channelization along the downstream riverbed, would provide substantial new capacity to handle the peak flows during the storm. Channelization, particularly in Cranford, instead of the temporary benefit of dredging, would add additional flow benefits.
The issue is the US Army Corps of Engineers has been reluctant to review the use of AI and is evaluating other lesser alternatives without even studying the potential. The original concern was that storms were misdiagnosed and they became flash storms. Absent the bypass at the reservoir, the next alternative being considered is the development of a new detention basin in South Mountain, which may have environmental and cost issues.
The California wildfires reminded all about the dangers of not being prepared and resilient. Communities along the Rahway River remain unprotected from flooding from extreme weather. A current list of alternatives that the US Army Corps of Engineers is studying excludes the one plan to use the advancements in AI technology for weather forecast modeling and better communication to inform when stormwater is to be released from the Orange Reservoir prior to a major storm.
President Biden signed the Water Resources Development Act of 2024, which made finding a solution to the river flooding a national priority. Residents are urged to contact their legislators to ensure all alternatives are on the table now.